Chile’s copper commission cut its 2026 copper output forecast to 4.94 million metric tons and raised its price outlook for both years. Separately, Codelco faces a Nov. 5 meeting over production it may have counted twice. Chile’s copper commission on Friday cut its 2026 production forecast to 4.94 million metric tons, projecting an 8.4% decline from 2025.
Even the lower target requires a rebound. To reach it, Chilean mines must average about 434,000 tons a month in the fourth quarter, 7.6% above their pace in the first nine months, the commission said.
Cochilco forecast 5.08 million tons for 2027, a 3% increase from 2026.
The cut came a day after Codelco, the state-owned copper company, fired eight executives and employees over production that may have been counted twice in 2024 and 2025. The investigation concerns historical reporting rather than the operational disruptions behind the 2026 shortfall, although further revisions could affect comparisons with previous years.
Chile’s latest production figures point to an operating shortfall. Codelco’s investigation raises a separate question about the accuracy of some of its past production records.
Chile produced 3.63 million tons of copper in the first nine months of the year, down 8.5% from a year earlier, Cochilco said. It cited lower ore grades, maintenance and interruptions that affected processing and copper recovery.
Three producers accounted for 77.3% of the net national decline through September. Output at BHP’s Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, fell 127,000 tons, or 12.5%. Codelco’s production fell 84,000 tons, or 9%, and BHP’s Spence mine fell 51,000 tons, or 25.7%.
Separately, the National Statistics Institute said Friday that Chile produced 387,870 tons in September, down 15.1% from a year earlier.
Cochilco raised its price forecasts, citing limited supply. It now expects copper to average $6.18 a pound this year and $5.95 next year, up from $5.95 and $5.10.
The higher price forecasts come even as Cochilco projects small surpluses of refined copper: 144,000 tons this year and 215,000 tons in 2027, against global demand of about 27.5 million tons.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed Friday at $14,154.50 a metric ton, about 4.8% below September’s record of $14,875. The Yangshan premium, a gauge of Chinese import demand, rose above $200 a ton this week, its highest in Fastmarkets data going back to 2017, Bloomberg reported.
Codelco’s board was told Oct. 6 of inconsistencies in 2024 and 2025 production figures at the Ministro Hales and Salvador divisions, the company said. The same material may have been recorded as production by more than one division, which could have artificially increased reported output.
Codelco hired EY to determine the nature and extent of any duplication and its effect on reported production, inventories and incentive payments. KPMG is reviewing production at all divisions for the two years. The company said it gave the information to prosecutors.
Chief Executive Jorge Gómez said the company would investigate any irregularity thoroughly and seek to recover any financial damage.
The dismissals announced Thursday covered the Chuquicamata, Ministro Hales and Salvador divisions and the company’s Santiago headquarters, Codelco said. Among those dismissed was the general manager of the Salvador division.
It is the second production-reporting case at Codelco this year. In May, an internal investigation found that the company had recorded 26,875 tons of copper still in process as finished production, about 2% of its 2025 output, Codelco said. The correction lowered Codelco’s reported 2025 production to 1,307,570 tons from 1,334,445 tons, its lowest in 27 years. After that review, the company said its audited 2025 financial statements did not need to be changed.
Codelco said the effects of the new case on its consolidated production and inventory figures are still being determined. It has not said how much copper is involved.
Codelco’s owner, the Chilean state, will review the 2024 and 2025 figures at an extraordinary shareholders meeting Nov. 5, requested by Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz and Mining Minister Daniel Mas. The company’s notice says the meeting will review information on the inconsistencies. It does not say whether Codelco will quantify them or revise its reported production.
