Copper cathode sheets at an industrial refinery and loading facility.
By Penny Langford
The copper price forecast 2026 is increasingly being shaped by a simple mismatch: demand from grids, electrification and artificial-intelligence infrastructure is expanding faster than large new mines can be developed.
That supply pressure is unfolding as the proposed Anglo American–Teck Resources combination awaits final approval from China. The transaction has been described as a US$100 billion-plus strategic consolidation when viewed through the scale of the combined copper platform and market significance, although reported transaction values have ranged from approximately US$53 billion to US$69 billion depending on valuation date and methodology.
The merger is not expected to eliminate the near-term copper deficit. Its importance is more strategic: it would create one of the sector’s largest copper producers and give the combined company greater influence over brownfield expansions, project sequencing and the development of assets in Chile, Peru and Canada.
For operators and investors, the more immediate question is whether copper prices settle near the low US$12,000s per tonne or move toward US$14,000–15,000/t if supply disruptions deepen.
Copper price forecast 2026: the market consensus
Published forecasts have widened as analysts have reassessed mine disruptions, concentrate availability and demand from power infrastructure.
A Reuters poll of 31 analysts placed the median 2026 LME cash copper forecast at approximately US$11,975/t. S&P Global Market Intelligence has projected an average price slightly above US$12,100/t, while BMI has raised its forecast to about US$12,700/t.
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J.P. Morgan’s quarterly outlook points to prices of US$13,500/t in the second quarter, US$13,000/t in the third quarter and US$12,500/t in the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs is more cautious, forecasting a range around US$10,000–11,000/t as additional supply and scrap offset structural demand.
The divergence reflects different assumptions about the market balance. Some forecasts anticipate a refined copper deficit of approximately 330,000 tonnes in 2026. Other estimates put the shortfall closer to 600,000 tonnes, while Goldman Sachs has previously projected a smaller surplus of about 160,000 tonnes.
Linkable copper supply-demand scenario table
| Scenario | 2026 refined market balance | Price range | Main conditions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear case | Surplus of 100,000–300,000 tonnes | US$9,800–11,000/t | Mine ramps succeed, scrap rises, China slows and macro conditions weaken |
| Base case | Deficit or near balance of 150,000–400,000 tonnes | US$11,500–13,000/t | Grid demand remains firm, but some supply returns and demand becomes price-sensitive |
| Bull case | Deficit of 500,000–700,000 tonnes | US$13,500–15,000/t | Major disruptions persist, inventories fall and electrification demand exceeds forecasts |
Scenario ranges compiled from public forecasts and market-balance estimates from Reuters, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BMI and S&P Global Market Intelligence. They are analytical ranges, not price targets or investment recommendations.
The central estimate is therefore not a single number. A reasonable working range for the 2026 annual average is US$11,500–13,000/t, with significant potential for temporary spikes above that level.
Why the deficit could persist
Copper supply is difficult to increase quickly. New projects often require a decade or more from discovery to commercial production, while existing operations face declining grades, water constraints, higher stripping ratios, permitting delays and rising construction costs.
Large-scale copper mining operations must offset declining grades, infrastructure constraints and long development timelines.
The market is also exposed to disruptions at several stages:
- Mining: Weather, labour disputes, equipment failures and lower grades can reduce output.
- Concentrate supply: Few new Tier 1 mines are scheduled to enter production quickly enough to transform the market.
- Smelting: Expanding smelter capacity, especially in China, is competing for a limited pool of concentrate.
- Refining: Energy costs, sulphuric acid availability and plant maintenance can constrain refined output.
- Logistics: Tariffs, sanctions and shipping disruptions can separate regional markets even when global inventories appear adequate.
This helps explain why annual production growth does not always prevent a physical squeeze. A market can report higher mine output while treatment charges fall, smelter margins narrow and consumers compete for prompt refined metal.
The International Copper Study Group will remain an important reference for monitoring production, refined output and market balances. However, operators should also track treatment and refining charges, exchange inventories, mine guidance and regional premiums because those indicators often move before annual supply data are revised.
Demand is shifting toward power infrastructure
The long-term demand case is increasingly connected to electricity rather than only to traditional construction and manufacturing.
Grid upgrades require copper-intensive transmission and distribution equipment, including cables, transformers, substations and switchgear. Renewable generation also requires new connections and balancing infrastructure. In many jurisdictions, grid projects are supported by public policy and are less discretionary than private-sector construction.
Artificial-intelligence data centres add another layer of demand. Copper is used in power distribution, cabling, transformers, cooling equipment and backup systems. The data centre itself is only part of the requirement; new facilities often need substations, transmission upgrades and additional generation capacity.
Grid expansion is becoming one of the largest sources of incremental copper demand.
Goldman Sachs estimates that grid and power infrastructure could account for more than 60% of copper-demand growth through 2030. China is expected to remain the largest individual source of demand, although the United States and Europe are increasing their contribution through data centres, defence infrastructure and energy-transition investment.
Demand is not unlimited. High copper prices can encourage aluminium substitution, reduce copper intensity in manufactured products and delay investment. Weak property construction in China also remains a drag on consumption.
The key issue is timing. Grid and data-centre projects may take years to complete, but procurement decisions can create concentrated demand for cable, electrical equipment and refined copper well before the infrastructure becomes operational.
Base case: elevated prices but no prolonged shortage
The base case assumes that the market remains tight without entering a sustained physical shortage.
Under this scenario, prices trade mainly between US$11,000/t and US$13,000/t, with an annual average close to the Reuters and J.P. Morgan estimates. Some disrupted production returns, scrap flows increase and high prices encourage industrial users to reduce inventories or substitute aluminium where technically feasible.
The market would still be more constrained than in previous cycles. A limited project pipeline means that even a modest production shortfall could draw down visible inventories quickly.
For operators, this environment places a premium on reliability. Higher throughput, better recovery rates and fewer unplanned shutdowns can materially improve financial performance without requiring a new mine. For developers, the challenge is demonstrating that projects remain economic across a broad price range rather than only at the upper end of current forecasts.
Bull case: US$13,500–15,000/t
The bull case requires several risks to reinforce one another.
Mine disruptions would need to persist in major producing regions such as Chile, Peru, Indonesia, Zambia or the Democratic Republic of Congo. Concentrate availability would tighten further, smelter treatment charges would remain under pressure and exchange inventories would decline.
At the same time, grid investment and data-centre construction would need to exceed current expectations. If consumers begin competing for nearby metal, regional premiums and backwardation could rise sharply.
J.P. Morgan’s forecast of US$13,500/t in the second quarter reflects the possibility of peak tightness early in the year. More aggressive market views see prices moving toward US$14,000–15,000/t if supply disruptions continue and inventories become concentrated in the wrong regions.
This scenario does not require every electrification forecast to be correct. Copper prices can respond disproportionately to a relatively small supply shortfall when above-ground inventories are low or unavailable to the buyers that need them.
Bear case: supply recovers faster than demand
The bear case is primarily a timing risk.
If major mine expansions ramp up successfully, disrupted operations return to normal and scrap availability rises, the market could move into a surplus. A stronger US dollar, high interest rates and slower global manufacturing would add pressure.
China’s property sector remains the largest demand risk. If construction activity weakens further, grid investment and non-property consumption may not fully offset the decline.
Goldman Sachs has forecast that copper could remain near US$10,000–11,000/t in 2026, based on a smaller surplus and increased scrap supply. A lower outcome near US$9,800/t, consistent with the more conservative end of published forecasts, would likely require several negative factors to occur together: weaker global growth, successful mine ramps, delayed infrastructure spending and greater substitution.
Even in that scenario, copper would remain historically expensive relative to much of the previous decade. The bear case would represent a cyclical correction, not necessarily the end of the longer-term supply challenge.
Anglo–Teck and the China approval milestone
The Anglo American–Teck merger has received approval from shareholders and most major regulatory jurisdictions. China remains the key outstanding approval, with public guidance pointing to a decision window extending from late 2026 into early 2027.
The combined company would create a major copper producer with substantial exposure to Chilean assets, including Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca. Its scale could improve capital allocation and support brownfield expansion, but those benefits would take time to affect global refined supply.
China’s review may also focus on security of supply. Possible conditions could include commitments concerning copper availability, investment or sales practices rather than asset disposals. Until approval is granted, the timing of integration and expansion plans remains uncertain.
The merger therefore matters more for the medium-term structure of the copper industry than for the 2026 annual balance. It could improve supply visibility over time, but it cannot quickly replace tonnes lost through current disruptions.
What to monitor through the year
Decision-makers should focus on the following indicators:
- Exchange inventories: Sustained draws would support the deficit scenario.
- Cash-to-three-month spreads: Persistent backwardation would indicate prompt-market scarcity.
- Treatment and refining charges: Falling charges would signal concentrate tightness.
- Mine guidance: Production revisions could alter the balance faster than demand forecasts.
- Chinese imports and premiums: These provide a direct read on physical consumption.
- Scrap flows: Higher prices can bring secondary supply into the market quickly.
- China’s Anglo–Teck decision: Approval timing and any conditions could influence the sector’s medium-term structure.
Bottom line
The most useful copper price forecast 2026 is a range of outcomes:
- Bear case: US$9,800–11,000/t.
- Base case: US$11,500–13,000/t.
- Bull case: US$13,500–15,000/t.
The centre of gravity remains around US$12,000/t, but the market’s sensitivity to mine disruptions and inventory movements creates a wide risk band.
The strategic copper case remains intact regardless of the Anglo–Teck merger. The decisive question is whether new mines, expansions, scrap and refining capacity can arrive quickly enough to meet demand from grids, electrification and AI infrastructure. Until the supply response becomes more visible, copper is likely to retain a higher and more volatile price floor.
This article is for information and market analysis only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Social snippets
LinkedIn:
Copper’s 2026 outlook spans roughly US$9,800–15,000/t, with the base case near US$11,500–13,000/t. The central issue is whether grid, electrification and AI demand outpaces new mine supply, scrap and refined production. Anglo American–Teck’s pending China approval adds a major consolidation milestone, but is unlikely to remove the near-term deficit.
X:
Copper price forecast 2026: base case US$11,500–13,000/t, bull case US$13,500–15,000/t, bear case US$9,800–11,000/t. The key variable is supply timing as Anglo–Teck awaits China approval and grid, electrification and AI demand remain firm.
