By Charles Pitts
Rio Tinto is reportedly evaluating a significant increase to its 17.2% stake in the Los Azules copper project in San Juan, Argentina, as the global mining giant maneuvers to secure long-term supply for an AI-driven surge in metal demand. The move, centered around the deployment of Rio’s proprietary Nuton leaching technology, highlights a strategic pivot toward “green” copper production at a time when traditional smelting capacity is becoming a bottleneck for the energy transition.
The Los Azules project, managed by McEwen Copper: a subsidiary of McEwen Mining: is currently ranked as one of the top ten largest undeveloped copper deposits in the world. With a projected 2030 production start date, the project is positioning itself to hit the market exactly when analysts expect a structural deficit in refined copper, fueled by the dual pressures of grid electrification and the massive power requirements of artificial intelligence data centers.
The Strategic Calculus: Securing a Tier-One Asset
Rio Tinto’s interest in deepening its involvement in Los Azules is more than a simple volume play. The company currently holds its 17.2% position through Nuton LLC, its venture focused on advanced heap-leaching technologies. According to recent industry reports and corporate filings, Rio is closely monitoring the project’s technical trials as it weighs a larger capital commitment.
The ownership structure of McEwen Copper is already a “who’s who” of industrial heavyweights. Alongside Rio Tinto, the automotive giant Stellantis holds an 18.3% stake, viewing the project as a critical link in its electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain. Rob McEwen, CEO of McEwen Mining, has indicated that the project’s 2025 Feasibility Study (FS) will be a primary catalyst for future investment decisions.
As of early 2026, the project boasts an after-tax Net Present Value (NPV) of approximately US$2.9 billion, with an estimated initial capital expenditure of US$4 billion. For Rio Tinto, increasing its stake would provide a more direct hand in one of the few global projects capable of producing over 200,000 tons of copper cathode annually during its first five years of operation.
Nuton Technology: The Competitive Moat
Central to Rio Tinto’s interest is the successful implementation of Nuton™ technology. Traditional copper extraction often involves energy-intensive smelting and refining, which carries a high carbon footprint and complex logistical requirements. Nuton’s bio-leaching process aims to extract copper from primary sulfide ores on-site, producing high-purity copper cathodes without the need for a smelter.
At Los Azules, the use of Nuton technology offers three distinct advantages that align with Rio Tinto’s mining news strategy:
- Lower Environmental Impact: The process significantly reduces water and energy consumption while eliminating the sulfur dioxide emissions associated with smelting.
- Capital Efficiency: By bypassing the need for concentrate transport and third-party smelting fees, the project can potentially operate with lower life-of-mine costs.
- Scalability: If proven at the scale of Los Azules, Rio Tinto could deploy Nuton across its broader portfolio, unlocking value from lower-grade or arsenic-heavy deposits that were previously considered uneconomical.
Technical trials currently underway in San Juan have shown “highly suitable” results, according to McEwen Copper leadership. This technological “de-risking” is a prerequisite for Rio Tinto to commit the billions required to bring the mine into production.
The AI Factor: Why Copper Demand is Decoupling
The traditional narrative for copper demand has long been tied to Chinese construction and global EV adoption. However, a new variable has entered the equation: the AI data center.
Research from S&P Global and JPMorgan suggests that AI data centers are significantly more copper-intensive than their predecessors. A 1-gigawatt (GW) AI-ready data center can require up to 50,000 tons of copper for its power distribution, cooling systems, and high-density cabling. In comparison, a traditional data center of the same capacity might only use 5,000 to 15,000 tons.
By 2026, incremental demand from AI infrastructure alone is expected to add 110,000 metric tons to the global market annually. This “AI bump” is occurring just as the world’s largest existing mines, such as Escondida in Chile, face declining ore grades. This mismatch between skyrocketing demand and aging supply is a primary driver behind Rio Tinto’s aggressive pursuit of Argentine assets.
Argentina’s Mining Renaissance and RIGI
The geopolitical risk associated with Argentina has historically been a deterrent for major mining houses. However, the current administration’s focus on the Regimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones (RIGI) has begun to shift the needle. This incentive program provides long-term fiscal stability, tax breaks, and eased capital controls for projects exceeding US$200 million.
San Juan, where Los Azules is located, has emerged as a premier mining jurisdiction within South America. Local officials have fast-tracked permitting processes, recognizing that the province’s copper belt is essential for the global energy transition.
“Argentina is at a crossroads,” says an analyst covering mining stocks to watch 2026. “With the RIGI framework in place, the barrier to entry for majors like Rio Tinto has lowered. They aren’t just looking at the geology anymore; they are looking at a much more favorable legislative environment.”
Copper Price Forecast 2026: The Looming Deficit
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projects a refined copper deficit of roughly 150,000 metric tons for 2026. This forecasted shortage is underpinning a bullish sentiment across the sector.
| Driver | 2026 Impact | Base Case Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| AI Data Centers | +110k Tons Demand | High Facility Intensity |
| EV Production | +15% YoY Growth | Sustained Battery Demand |
| Grid Upgrades | Structural Growth | Heavy utility-scale cabling |
| Mine Supply | Stagnant/Declining | Grade depletion at major sites |
With prices expected to remain elevated, the incentive for Rio Tinto to finalize its stake in Los Azules is reaching a tipping point. Investors are keeping a close eye on McEwen Copper’s planned US$300 million IPO, expected by late 2026. The valuation achieved during this public offering will likely determine the final price Rio Tinto pays to expand its footprint in the Andes.
Conclusion: A 2030 Vision
Rio Tinto’s potential move on Los Azules is a signal to the market that the era of “easy” copper is over. Future supply will rely on a combination of high-altitude Andean deposits and cutting-edge technology like Nuton.
As the 2030 production window approaches, Los Azules stands as a primary test case for whether the mining industry can meet the physical requirements of the digital revolution. For Rio Tinto, owning a larger piece of that solution isn’t just about diversification; it’s about survival in an AI-dominated economy.
