Platinum Shares Fall as U.S. Tariffs Shake Market
South African platinum shares took a sharp hit on Thursday, falling as much as 8.5% on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs on a range of global imports.
The drop came despite platinum group metals (PGMs)—which include platinum, palladium, and rhodium—being excluded from the new tariff list. Still, traders worried that a global economic slowdown could undermine demand for these metals, particularly in the automotive sector, where they are critical for catalytic converters.
Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. (Implats) led losses, closing 8.5% lower. Anglo American Platinum Ltd. and Northam Platinum Holdings each dropped by around 7%.
“You are talking about lower growth output. It’s as simple as that,” said Adrian Hammond, an analyst at Standard Bank SBG Securities, speaking at the 2025 PGMs Industry Day in Johannesburg. “They [the U.S.] would never tariff platinum directly—it would hurt them. But the knock-on from weaker auto sales is real.”
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Platinum Shares Dropped Despite PGM Exclusion From Tariffs
According to the Minerals Council of South Africa, PGMs were excluded from the tariffs along with coal, gold, and manganese. The Council noted that PGMs make up 76.3% of South Africa’s total mineral and precious metals exports to the U.S., worth R65.3 billion ($3.4 billion) in 2024.
Still, Hammond estimates that if U.S. auto production declines by 10% due to higher end-product prices, it could reduce palladium demand by 200,000 to 250,000 ounces—a meaningful hit for producers.
Why Analysts Say This Is a Buying Opportunity for Platinum Shares
Not all analysts are bearish. Rene Hochreiter, an analyst at Noah Capital, sees the sharp pullback in platinum shares as a “perfect buying opportunity.” He argues that surplus rhodium stocks have already cleared, and that surface-level inventories of platinum and palladium are likely to be depleted within a year or two.
“Once the surplus is gone, you’re going to see a big upward reaction in platinum shares,” Hochreiter said.
That long-term optimism is supported by a recent rally in the sector. Implats rose 84% from a low of R70.35 to a March high of nearly R130. Northam climbed 72% in the same period, before both retreated this week.
FOMO and Fundamentals: What’s Really Driving Platinum Stocks
At last year’s conference, Hammond dismissed the rally as “purely speculative.” This year, he acknowledged that share prices have been running “quite hard” due to a mix of improved sentiment, investor FOMO, and falling secondary supply.
Other supportive factors include a rebound in gold prices, lower-than-expected demand for battery electric vehicles (which do not require PGMs), and resilience in other metals like nickel, copper, and chrome—especially the latter, which has been a lifeline for Northam Platinum.
“Northam would have made losses last year were it not for chrome,” Hochreiter noted.
What’s Next for Platinum Shares?
While the near-term outlook for platinum shares remains clouded by macroeconomic uncertainty, analysts suggest long-term fundamentals are improving. As surplus inventories fall and auto catalyst demand stabilizes, the setup could favor patient investors.
Still, timing is critical.
“Things are getting interesting,” Hammond said. “But the tough job is to call the pinch point. The destocking cycle is starting to turn, but I’m not entirely convinced yet.”
