Skillings Daily | Thursday, January 22, 2026 | 4:00 AM ET
By Penny Laneford
Good morning, folks. Pour yourself that first cup because the overnight session gave us plenty to chew on. The short version? Gold and silver aren’t budging from their elevated perches, copper’s doing its own thing tied to China chatter, and lithium continues its slow crawl back from last year’s beatdown. Let’s get into it.
The Numbers You Woke Up For
Here’s where we stand as of 4:00 AM Eastern:
- Gold (XAU/USD): $3,287.40/oz : up 0.3% overnight
- Silver (XAG/USD): $41.18/oz : up 0.5% overnight
- Copper (HG): $4.72/lb : flat, basically treading water
- Lithium Carbonate (China spot): $18,420/ton : up 1.2%
Nothing dramatic on the surface, but the context matters. Gold is now sustaining a jaw-dropping 65% gain year-over-year. Let that sink in. Twelve months ago, we were hovering around $1,990, and plenty of analysts were calling for a pullback. Instead, the yellow metal has spent the better part of 2025 proving everyone wrong and showing no signs of slowing down as we settle into 2026.
Gold: The 65% Elephant in the Room
Look, we’ve been beating this drum for months at Skillings, but it bears repeating: gold’s run isn’t some speculative froth. This is institutional money, central bank buying, and genuine safe-haven demand all converging at once.
The overnight session saw modest gains, nothing to write home about on its own. But the real story is what gold isn’t doing: it’s not selling off. Every time we get a hint of de-escalation in Eastern Europe or the Middle East, traders brace for a correction. It never comes. Dip buyers are lurking everywhere, and that bid support around the $3,200 level has held firm for three consecutive weeks now.
Central bank purchasing remains aggressive. China’s been adding to reserves like clockwork, and there’s credible chatter that several Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds have been quietly accumulating physical metal. When the big boys are buying, retail sentiment almost doesn’t matter.
The geopolitical backdrop isn’t helping bears either. Tensions between NATO and Russia over the Baltic corridor showed no signs of thawing overnight. Meanwhile, shipping insurance rates through the Red Sea remain elevated, keeping supply chain anxieties alive and well. Gold thrives in uncertainty, and uncertainty is the only thing we’ve got in abundance right now.
Silver: Riding Shotgun
Silver’s been the scrappier sibling throughout this rally, and that continued overnight. The white metal tacked on half a percent, pushing back above $41 for the first time since last Friday’s pullback.
The gold-silver ratio currently sits around 79.8, which is historically elevated but nowhere near the extremes we saw during the pandemic panic years. Silver bulls argue there’s catch-up potential here: if gold stabilizes at these levels, silver could outperform on a percentage basis as the ratio compresses back toward its long-term average in the mid-60s.
Industrial demand remains a wildcard. Solar panel manufacturing continues to gobble up silver at record rates, and the photovoltaic sector shows no signs of slowing its appetite. But that industrial sensitivity cuts both ways: any whiff of global recession, and silver tends to feel it harder than gold.
For now, the metal is holding gains and looking constructive. Watch the $40 support level. If that breaks, things could get interesting fast.
Copper: Waiting on China
Copper traders have been stuck in purgatory for weeks now, and overnight was more of the same. The red metal closed essentially flat, hovering around $4.72/lb with no clear directional conviction.
The story here is China, China, and more China. The property sector drag continues to weigh on sentiment, but there are tentative signs that infrastructure spending is picking up to offset the residential slump. Beijing’s been making noise about accelerating grid investment and EV charging infrastructure buildout, both of which are copper-intensive projects.
On the supply side, we’re keeping an eye on Chile. Labor negotiations at a couple of major operations have hit snags, and while nothing’s escalated to full-blown strike action yet, the threat alone is enough to keep a floor under prices. Any meaningful supply disruption from the world’s top copper producer would send this market moving in a hurry.
The broader macro picture matters too. If the Federal Reserve signals any dovish pivot in the coming weeks: and there’s increasing speculation they might: copper could catch a bid alongside other risk assets. A weaker dollar generally helps commodity prices across the board.
Lithium: The Long Road Back
Lithium continues its slow, grinding recovery from the brutal 2024 selloff. China spot prices for lithium carbonate ticked up 1.2% overnight to $18,420/ton, which sounds nice until you remember this stuff was trading above $80,000/ton at the 2022 peak.
The EV demand story hasn’t gone away: if anything, it’s accelerating in China and gaining traction in Europe. But supply additions from Australia, Chile, and Argentina have flooded the market, and it’s taking time to work through the inventory overhang.
We’re starting to see some production rationalization, though. A few high-cost spodumene projects in Australia have curtailed output, and there’s talk of more to come if prices don’t recover meaningfully by mid-year. That’s the kind of supply-side discipline this market needs to find its footing.
The wildcard is sodium-ion battery technology. It’s been gaining ground faster than expected, and while it won’t replace lithium-ion for high-performance applications, it could eat into market share for entry-level EVs and stationary storage. Something to watch.
Geopolitics: The Persistent Bid
We keep circling back to geopolitics because, frankly, that’s what’s driving the bus for precious metals right now.
The Baltic situation isn’t improving. Russian naval activity remains elevated, and there’s been a steady drumbeat of statements from both sides that don’t exactly scream détente. European energy security concerns persist, and that’s keeping a safe-haven premium baked into gold.
The Middle East is its own mess. Red Sea shipping disruptions have become semi-permanent at this point, adding friction costs throughout global supply chains. Iran-backed proxy activity shows no signs of abating, and the broader regional instability continues to support haven flows.
Even outside the hot zones, trade tensions are simmering. U.S.-China relations remain frosty, and there’s ongoing speculation about potential new tariff actions from Washington. None of this is new, but none of it is resolved either: and that chronic uncertainty is exactly what gold feeds on.
What We’re Watching Today
A few items on the radar as markets open:
U.S. Jobless Claims : Due out at 8:30 AM ET. Any unexpected weakness could fuel rate cut speculation and give metals a lift.
ECB Commentary : Several ECB officials are scheduled to speak throughout the European session. Any dovish signals could weigh on the dollar and support commodity prices broadly.
China PMI Preview Chatter : Official PMI data drops this weekend, but we’ll be listening for any pre-release positioning or analyst commentary that might move copper.
Gold Technical Levels : The $3,300 psychological barrier is right there. A clean break above could trigger momentum buying; rejection could invite some near-term profit-taking.
That’s the morning read from Skillings. Markets open in a few hours, and we’ll be watching alongside you. Stay sharp out there.
For more coverage on mining industry developments, visit Skillings.net throughout the day.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Commodity markets carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
