A Resource Already Above Ground
North America’s next source of critical minerals may not begin at a mine. It may begin in a drawer.
Mobile phones reaching end of life across the United States, Canada and Mexico could contain at least US$2.2 billion worth of recoverable critical minerals by 2040, according to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation. Its report, Missing Signal: Unlocking a Circular Economy for Mobile Phones in North America, examines how better product design, longer use, repair, collection and recycling could capture more of that value.
The estimate represents potential mineral value, not guaranteed recycling revenue. The amount ultimately recovered will depend on how many devices enter collection systems, the materials they contain, the efficiency of processing and the costs of producing materials that meet buyers’ specifications.
For the mining and metals industry, the question is whether a dispersed stream of discarded electronics can become a reliable source of secondary materials.
Nearly 2.6 Billion Phones Could Reach End of Life
The report estimates that about two billion phones in the United States will reach end of life by 2040. Its country-level estimates add another 410 million devices in Mexico and 180 million in Canada. Together, those figures amount to nearly 2.6 billion phones across the region.
More Read
Not all these devices will move directly into recycling. Some phones are repaired, refurbished, resold or passed on to another user. These routes can preserve a device’s value and delay the need to recover its materials.
But reuse does not guarantee that a phone will eventually enter a formal recycling system. Waste Dive’s account of the report says only about half of US phones reaching end of life are expected to enter reuse pathways. The rest may follow other routes, including storage, disposal or movement beyond the region’s formal recovery systems.
The distinction matters. A phone kept in use is not available to a recycler today. A phone stored indefinitely in a home is not part of a dependable industrial feedstock. And a phone collected for recycling does not automatically yield saleable critical minerals.
More Read
The report estimates that US residents hold around 223 million unused smartphones in drawers or boxes. These “hibernating” devices represent a potential source of material, but only if collection systems can bring them back into circulation.
Product Design Shapes What Can Be Recovered
A phone’s recycling potential is partly determined before it reaches a processing plant.
Adhesives, difficult-to-remove batteries and designs that complicate disassembly can make it harder to separate components. These steps add labour and processing demands. They can also affect which materials a recycler can recover economically.
The Foundation identifies durability, repairability and easier disassembly as important parts of a circular phone system. Longer software support can keep devices useful, while access to parts and repair tools can make it easier to extend their service life. Design changes can also simplify the eventual separation of components.
Right-to-repair measures can support longer use, but repair access alone does not ensure that a device is easy or economical to fix. Product design, spare-parts availability and software support all influence whether repair is practical.
For recyclers, the benefits of better design come later in the product’s life. Easier disassembly can improve access to components and materials, but it cannot eliminate the need for efficient metal recovery and refining.
Collection Is Only the First Step
Unused phones become a resource only when they reach a suitable collection and processing route.
Convenient take-back programmes, trade-ins and drop-off points can help return devices to formal systems. Better tracking can also clarify where phones move after use, including when they cross borders or enter resale markets.
For recyclers, collection has an industrial purpose: securing a consistent supply of suitable material. A large theoretical stock of phones does not guarantee that enough devices will arrive at a plant, in the right condition and at a cost that supports profitable processing.
That supply challenge is connected to regional processing capacity. North America needs systems that can move collected electronics through dismantling, metal recovery and refining, rather than simply accumulating devices or exporting material for treatment elsewhere.
From Electronic Scrap to Refined Metal
Glencore’s Horne Smelter in Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec, illustrates one part of this chain. The company identifies Horne as North America’s largest processor of end-of-life electronics containing copper and precious metals. Its process produces copper anodes, which are sent to Glencore’s Canadian Copper Refinery in Montréal for further refining.
Aurubis’ recycling operation in Augusta, Georgia, provides another example of regional processing infrastructure. The company describes the facility as a multi-metal recycling plant that processes printed circuit boards and other complex metal-bearing materials. Its process produces blister copper, an intermediate product that requires further refining.
These facilities demonstrate why recovery and refining should not be treated as the same step. A smelter may concentrate metals into an intermediate product, while additional processing is needed to produce refined material for manufacturing.
They also should not be taken as evidence that every critical mineral in a phone can be recovered at either facility. Their published descriptions focus on particular feedstocks and metal outputs. The recovery route for each material depends on its concentration, chemistry and the processing capabilities available.
For the recycling industry, the commercial question is whether the value of recovered materials can cover collection, transport, sorting, processing and refining costs. A phone may contain valuable elements, but low concentrations or complex separation requirements can make some of them difficult to recover economically.
A Complement to Primary Mining
Mobile phones contain a mix of metals and other materials, including critical minerals used in electronics and energy technologies. Recovering a portion of those materials could provide an additional source of supply for manufacturers and keep more resources circulating within the economy.
That does not make phone recycling a substitute for primary mining. The potential supply is limited by the number of devices reaching end of life, their material composition, collection rates and the efficiency of recovery. Recycled materials must also meet the quality and consistency requirements of downstream users.
The opportunity is to complement mined supply with secondary materials. Doing so requires more than consumer participation or improved recycling technology. Manufacturers, repair businesses, collection networks, recyclers, refiners and policymakers all influence whether phones move through the system and return as usable metals.
The Ellen MacArthur Foundation’s report frames the task across the phone’s full life cycle: design devices to last and be easier to repair, recover more phones after use, and strengthen the systems that process their materials.
The $2.2 billion estimate puts a value on the opportunity. Capturing it will depend on turning millions of scattered devices into a reliable feedstock—and converting that feedstock into refined materials that industry can use.
