Copper processing infrastructure at a large-scale mine in the Andes.
By Penny Langford
Copper enters 2026 with an unusually wide gap between institutional forecasts. A Reuters analyst poll expects London Metal Exchange cash copper to average approximately $11,975 per tonne, while Goldman Sachs Research sees prices holding in a $10,000–$11,000 per tonne range as a projected surplus limits sustained upside.
The difference reflects a broader debate over whether mine disruptions and electrification demand will push the market into a meaningful deficit, or whether new production, scrap supply and weaker traditional industrial demand will keep the balance manageable.
A Reuters survey cited a potential 150,000-tonne copper deficit in 2026, while Goldman Sachs has maintained a more cautious view, forecasting a smaller surplus of roughly 160,000 tonnes. Those contrasting assumptions provide the starting point for a base, bull and bear framework for copper prices.
Copper market forecast: the key numbers
| Forecast or scenario | 2026 copper assumption | Market balance | Main rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reuters analyst poll | $11,975/t average | Deficit risk | Mine disruptions and tighter supply expectations |
| Goldman Sachs Research | $10,000–$11,000/t | Approx. 160,000 t surplus | Supply growth and softer Chinese refined demand |
| Base case | $10,500–$12,500/t | Small deficit or near balance | Firm grid demand, gradual mine growth, periodic disruptions |
| Bull case | $13,000–$15,000/t | 300,000–600,000 t deficit | Multiple mine outages, constrained concentrate and strong electrification |
| Bear case | $8,500–$10,000/t | Surplus | Chinese slowdown, higher scrap supply and successful mine ramp-ups |
This table is designed as a linkable market reference for analysts and industry decision-makers. It should be read as a scenario framework rather than a price target or investment recommendation.
Why the copper market is tightening
The supply case rests on a simple operational problem: copper mines are taking longer to build, existing operations are aging, and disruptions at a small number of large assets can quickly change the global balance.
The International Copper Study Group has warned that refined production growth may slow sharply as mine disruptions, declining grades and processing constraints offset new capacity. Projects in Chile, Peru, Zambia and Indonesia can add supply, but ramp-ups rarely occur at a pace that fully compensates for lost production elsewhere.
Several risks have become particularly important:
- Mine disruptions: Mudflows, technical failures, labor disputes and safety events can remove large volumes from annual supply.
- Mature assets: Chilean operations face deeper mining, lower grades, water constraints and increasingly complex capital projects.
- Permitting delays: Large copper mines can require many years to progress from discovery through environmental approvals and construction.
- Concentrate scarcity: Smelter demand has continued to pressure treatment and refining charges, a sign that available concentrate is becoming more difficult to secure.
- Geopolitical intervention: Export controls and domestic-processing requirements can change trade flows even when refined production is not immediately lost.
Skillings’ analysis of the 2026 copper supply deficit examines how grid investment, artificial-intelligence infrastructure and mine disruptions are combining to support a higher long-term price floor.
Copper concentrate and processing equipment in a modern concentrator.
The demand case: grids, electrification and data centres
Copper demand is becoming less dependent on traditional construction and manufacturing cycles. Power infrastructure is now one of the most important sources of incremental consumption.
Grid upgrades require copper-intensive cables, transformers, substations and distribution equipment. Renewable generation adds demand not only through turbines and solar installations, but also through the transmission infrastructure required to connect those assets to consumers.
Electric vehicles, charging networks and battery-storage systems also use more copper than many conventional internal-combustion applications. The transition is not uniform across regions, but the direction is clear: more transport and industrial activity is being connected to electricity.
Data centres are an additional demand source. Artificial-intelligence workloads require higher power density, more cooling capacity and extensive electrical infrastructure. J.P. Morgan has estimated that data centres could consume approximately 475,000 tonnes of copper in 2026, although estimates vary according to the pace of construction and the amount of copper used in each facility.
Goldman Sachs Research has argued that grid and power infrastructure could account for more than 60% of copper-demand growth through 2030. Its analysis also highlights a potential offset: high copper prices may encourage substitution with aluminium in selected industrial and consumer applications.
That substitution risk matters. Copper demand can remain structurally strong while still falling short of the most bullish forecasts if manufacturers redesign components, reduce material intensity or delay capital spending.
Power infrastructure illustrates the growing connection between copper demand and electrification investment.
Goldman Sachs versus the deficit camp
Goldman Sachs’ forecast is more cautious than the Reuters consensus because it assumes that supply growth and demand moderation will prevent a sustained shortage.
Its published outlook expects LME copper to remain between $10,000 and $11,000 per tonne in 2026, with an average of approximately $10,710 per tonne during the first half. Goldman also forecasts a refined-market surplus of around 160,000 tonnes.
The bank’s argument is not that copper fundamentals are weak. Rather, it expects higher prices to encourage additional mine output, recycling and demand substitution. It also sees Chinese refined-copper demand weakening after earlier stimulus and tariff-related stockpiling effects fade.
The deficit camp places more weight on the difficulty of replacing lost mine supply. Reuters’ earlier survey projected a 150,000-tonne deficit for 2026, while other market analysts have outlined potential shortfalls of 300,000 to 600,000 tonnes if disruptions persist and demand from power infrastructure accelerates.
The divergence is therefore primarily about timing. Goldman expects the structural shortage to emerge later, with demand overtaking supply more decisively after 2026. Other analysts believe the market is already entering that transition.
Copper price scenarios for 2026
Base case: $10,500–$12,500 per tonne
The base case assumes a market that is tight but not disorderly.
Some disrupted mines recover part of their lost output. New projects and expansions ramp gradually, while smelters continue to compete for concentrate. Grid investment and data-centre construction remain supportive, but Chinese property weakness and high borrowing costs limit traditional industrial demand.
Under this scenario, prices remain volatile and may trade above the Goldman range during periods of inventory stress. However, sustained moves well above $13,000 would require clearer evidence of a physical refined-metal shortage.
Bull case: $13,000–$15,000 per tonne
The bull case requires several risks to occur together.
Mine disruptions persist across major producing regions, new projects underperform, and concentrate availability tightens further. At the same time, grid upgrades, energy-transition investment and data-centre construction exceed expectations.
A restrictive trade measure affecting concentrate or refined copper could amplify the move by redirecting metal toward specific regions. Falling exchange inventories, backwardation and deeply depressed treatment charges would provide confirmation that the rally is being driven by physical tightness rather than financial positioning alone.
Bear case: $8,500–$10,000 per tonne
The bear case assumes that Goldman Sachs’ supply response arrives faster than expected.
New production ramps successfully, disrupted mines return to normal, and high prices release additional scrap. Chinese demand weakens more sharply, while manufacturers substitute aluminium or delay capital expenditure.
Prices could then fall toward the upper end of the estimated incentive range required to support new production. Such a decline would not invalidate the long-term electrification thesis, but it would indicate that the market has sufficient near-term metal.
Institutional positioning framework
For institutional investors, producers and policymakers, copper exposure should be assessed through four separate lenses rather than through the headline price alone.
| Positioning lens | Bullish signal | Risk signal |
|---|---|---|
| Physical market | Falling inventories, backwardation, weak treatment charges | Rising inventories and improving concentrate availability |
| Supply execution | Guidance cuts, delayed ramps and permitting setbacks | New mines deliver on schedule |
| Demand quality | Grid, data-centre and transport investment with contracted funding | Speculative projects or delayed industrial spending |
| Policy and trade | Export controls, tariffs and strategic stockpiling | Easing trade restrictions and improved logistics |
This framework is deliberately institutional rather than promotional. A higher copper price does not benefit every producer equally. Cost inflation, royalties, power availability, debt obligations and jurisdictional risk determine how much of the price increase reaches operating margins.
The same distinction applies to developers. A higher long-term copper assumption can improve project economics, but it does not remove permitting, construction or financing risk.
What to watch next
The most useful indicators for testing the 2026 forecast are:
- Exchange inventories: Sustained withdrawals would support the deficit case.
- Treatment and refining charges: Continued weakness would point to concentrate scarcity.
- Mine guidance: Production revisions from Chile, Peru, Indonesia, Zambia and the DRC could materially change the balance.
- Chinese demand: Refined consumption, imports and manufacturing activity remain central to the near-term outlook.
- Grid and data-centre capital spending: Announced projects are less important than funded construction and equipment orders.
- Scrap flows: Higher prices can bring secondary supply into the market faster than new mines can respond.
- Trade policy: Tariffs, export restrictions and domestic-processing rules could create regional premiums even without a global shortage.
The most balanced conclusion is that copper faces a tighter structural outlook, but the path to higher prices will not be linear. Reuters’ $11,975-per-tonne consensus captures the risk of a disrupted market, while Goldman Sachs’ $10,000–$11,000 range highlights the possibility that supply, scrap and substitution will moderate the rally.
For 2026, the central question is not whether copper demand will grow. It is whether new supply can arrive quickly enough to meet electricity-intensive growth before inventories and processing capacity become the binding constraints.
For additional context, see Skillings’ copper price outlook on grid upgrades, data centres and structural price floors and its analysis of the DRC copper-cobalt export ban and global supply risk.
This article is for information and market analysis only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Sources
- Reuters: Copper forecasts jump above $11,000 for the first time
- Reuters: Slower production growth will push copper market into deficit
- Goldman Sachs Research: Copper prices forecast to decline somewhat from record highs
- International Energy Agency: Global Critical Minerals Outlook
- J.P. Morgan: Copper outlook
