By Charles Pitts and Salini Krishnan
Ivanhoe Mines has cut production guidance for its flagship Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo, lowering its outlook for both 2026 and 2027 after updating its reserve model and shifting more of the operation toward underground development and rehabilitation.
The company said 2026 copper production is now expected to range between 290,000 and 330,000 tonnes, down from previous guidance of 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes. Its 2027 target was also reduced to 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes.
The guidance reset follows a new reserve model that reduced reserve grades by 28%, a change that carries significant implications for one of the mining sector’s most closely watched copper growth assets. Kamoa-Kakula has been central to investor expectations around future copper supply as miners race to secure exposure to the metal needed for electrification, grid expansion and energy-transition infrastructure.
Ivanhoe said the revised plan reflects a greater focus on underground development and rehabilitation at the complex. The adjustment signals a longer and more operationally intensive path to sustain output than previously expected, particularly as companies across the copper sector contend with declining grades, mine sequencing challenges and rising capital demands.
The market reaction has been sharp. Ivanhoe shares have fallen nearly 35% year-to-date, reflecting investor concern over the lower production outlook and the reserve downgrade at a project long viewed as one of the industry’s premier copper mines.
The move also comes at a sensitive moment for copper markets. Producers, investors and policymakers have been watching for signs that new supply can keep pace with expected demand growth, especially from power, transport and industrial decarbonization. A weaker outlook from Kamoa-Kakula may add to broader concerns about the timing and reliability of future large-scale copper supply.
Ivanhoe trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IVN.
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