Resolute’s Q4 recovery target at Syama rests on a new contractor’s equipment and an on-site emulsion plant. By the company’s own account, it also rests on Mali’s supply constraints continuing to ease.
Resolute Mining (ASX/LSE: RSG) has cut its 2026 production guidance for the Syama gold mine in Mali to 150,000–160,000 ounces. Syama had been guided at 195,000–210,000 ounces, with the company already flagging the lower end in June. Group guidance is now 205,000–225,000 ounces [previous group figure: confirm from Resolute’s 2026 guidance announcement]. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) are expected at US$2,300–2,400 an ounce at Syama and US$2,250–2,350 at group level, based on a US$4,000 gold price, according to the company’s 21 September operational update.
What Resolute says went wrong
Syama produced 74,000 ounces in the first half, with 30,000 in the second quarter at an AISC of US$2,654 an ounce. Resolute says the pressure continued into the third quarter. July and August together produced 15,500 ounces.
Underground, explosives supply was intermittent through the wet season. Emulsion was scarce, ANFO was used where possible as a substitute, and wet ground delayed new draw points. In the A21 open pit, mining ran below plan, which delayed access to higher-grade ore. Resolute has moved to a new mining contractor.
The June update tied the disruption to delays in equipment deliveries caused by road insecurity in parts of Mali. The September update refers more broadly to the operating environment and to importation delays affecting critical mining inputs.
What the mine can fix, and what it cannot
Two fixes are under way. An on-site emulsion plant is planned for commissioning by November, and the new contractor’s additional equipment is due in September and October. Chief executive Chris Eger says Syama is “starting to attain our operating budget” after the July low.
The dependency is in the same release. Resolute says stable results depend on improved certainty over the movement and availability of consumables, equipment and contractor resources within Mali. It says its initiatives can support Q4 production in line with expectations only if those external constraints continue to ease.
The Q4 arithmetic (Skillings analysis)
Resolute expects about 15,000 ounces in September and about 31,000 ounces for the third quarter. It expects 45,000–50,000 ounces in Q4, as the September improvement continues.
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Taking the first half’s 74,000 ounces less the second quarter’s 30,000 gives about 44,000 ounces for the first quarter. That makes the Q4 target a return to the pre-disruption run-rate, not an improvement on it. It also equals roughly September’s monthly pace held for three months.
The full year adds up to 150,000–155,000 ounces. The top of the 150,000–160,000 range would need a stronger Q4 than the company currently points to.
Resolute says Syama’s higher AISC reflects lower production, partly offset by timing-related inventory movements. Readers should treat the cost range with that in mind.
The rest of the group
Mako in Senegal is tracking to 55,000–65,000 ounces at US$1,600–1,800 an ounce. Doropo in Côte d’Ivoire is on schedule and on budget, with first concrete expected next month.
What to watch
The Q3 report should show whether September’s output held. Beyond that, the markers are the contractor’s fleet arriving by end-October, the emulsion plant commissioning in November, and Q4 output against 45,000–50,000 ounces.
Skillings reports company statements and does not offer investment advice.
