Freshly produced copper cathodes at a refinery loading area.
By Penny Langford
The copper price forecast 2026 has split into two broad camps. Westpac has upgraded its end-2026 target to US$13,500 per tonne, arguing that electrification, grid investment and artificial-intelligence data centres are tightening the market faster than new mine supply can respond.
Other analysts remain more cautious. Goldman Sachs has indicated that copper could consolidate around US$10,800–11,000/t as additional supply, higher scrap availability and weaker industrial demand offset some of the long-term growth in electricity consumption.
That gap matters for mining companies, smelters, manufacturers and investors. It reflects more than a difference in price targets: analysts are making different assumptions about whether copper supply disruptions become a lasting deficit or whether high prices attract enough new supply and secondary metal to restore balance.
Copper price forecast 2026: the analyst range
The first distinction is between a full-year average, a quarterly peak and an end-of-year target. These measures are not directly comparable. A market can average US$11,500/t while briefly trading above US$13,000/t during a supply disruption.
| Analyst or institution | 2026 forecast | Forecast type | Main assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Westpac | US$13,500/t | End-2026 target | Structural deficit, electrification and AI-related demand |
| Reuters analyst poll | US$11,975/t | Full-year average | Tight market, but cautious global and Chinese demand |
| J.P. Morgan | About US$12,075/t | Full-year average | Refined deficit of roughly 330,000 tonnes |
| Goldman Sachs | US$10,000–11,000/t | Trading range | Surplus conditions, rising scrap and additional supply |
| Bank of America | US$11,313/t | Full-year average | Mine supply remains constrained despite smelter overcapacity |
| Macquarie | US$13,165/t | Full-year average | Persistent supply pressure and stronger demand |
| S&P Global Market Intelligence | Above US$12,100/t | Full-year average | Concentrate shortages and limited new mine supply |
| World Bank | About US$9,800/t | Full-year average | More conservative macroeconomic and demand assumptions |
The Reuters survey of 31 analysts placed the 2026 LME cash copper average at US$11,975/t, according to Reuters reporting. That puts the broad consensus below Westpac’s end-year call but well above the price levels that prevailed during much of the previous decade.
Westpac’s position is more bullish because it expects supply disruptions and processing constraints to have effects beyond a single quarter. Its February 2026 commodities update raised the end-2026 copper forecast from US$11,500/t to US$13,500/t.
Base case: copper averages around US$11,000–12,000/t
The most defensible base case is a copper market that remains tight but does not experience a prolonged physical shortage.
Under this scenario, copper trades mostly between US$10,800/t and US$12,500/t, with a full-year average close to the Reuters and J.P. Morgan estimates. Prices may move higher during periods of falling exchange inventories or mine disruptions, but sustained trading above US$13,000/t requires a stronger deterioration in supply than the base case assumes.
Several factors support this middle path.
First, electricity demand is becoming more copper-intensive. Transmission upgrades, new substations, renewable generation, electric vehicles and charging networks all require refined copper. Grid investment is also less discretionary than many traditional industrial purchases: once a utility or government has committed to a project, delays can be costly and politically difficult.
Second, data-centre construction is adding a new source of demand. AI infrastructure requires copper in power distribution, cabling, cooling equipment, transformers and backup systems. The effect is not limited to the data centre itself. New facilities also require grid connections, substations and transmission upgrades.
Third, mine supply remains difficult to expand quickly. New copper projects often require a decade or more from discovery to commercial production. Existing operations face declining grades, higher stripping ratios, water constraints, permitting delays and rising capital costs.
A large open-pit copper mine with active loading and haulage operations.
The base case does, however, assume that some of the market’s tightness is absorbed by higher prices. Scrap flows typically increase when prices rise, while fabricators and industrial users may reduce inventories or substitute materials where technically possible. A slowdown in property construction or manufacturing would also moderate demand, particularly in China.
This is the logic behind the more cautious forecasts from Goldman Sachs and other analysts that see copper consolidating closer to US$10,800–11,000/t. Their argument is not that electrification demand disappears. It is that demand growth takes time to translate into physical consumption, while new supply and secondary copper can arrive sooner.
Bull case: Westpac’s US$13,500/t end-year target
The bull case assumes the market moves from tightness into a clear refined copper deficit.
In this scenario, mine disruptions continue, concentrate availability deteriorates and smelters face pressure from limited feedstock. At the same time, grid and data-centre construction remains strong enough to keep refined demand rising. Exchange inventories fall, regional premiums increase and consumers begin competing for prompt metal.
Westpac’s US$13,500/t end-2026 target represents this view. It is supported by three related assumptions:
- The supply response is slow. New mines and expansions cannot offset disruptions at established operations quickly enough.
- Electrification demand is underestimated. Grid reinforcement and AI infrastructure accelerate faster than conventional industrial models capture.
- Processing bottlenecks worsen. Sulphuric acid shortages, concentrate availability and smelter constraints limit the amount of ore that can become refined copper.
J.P. Morgan’s outlook also allows for prices in the US$13,000–13,500/t range during periods of peak tightness. J.P. Morgan’s copper outlook links the stronger price environment to a projected refined deficit and continuing demand from power infrastructure.
The bull case does not necessarily require every demand forecast to be correct. Copper markets can become highly sensitive to small changes in visible inventories. If inventories are already low, a modest production shortfall can produce a disproportionate price response.
Bear case: US$9,800–11,000/t as supply catches up
The bear case is less about a collapse in copper demand than about timing.
If mine production recovers, expansion projects ramp up as planned and global growth slows, the market could move into surplus. High prices would encourage additional scrap collection and reduce demand from price-sensitive users. Chinese property weakness could remain a drag, while a stronger US dollar and restrictive interest rates would add pressure to industrial commodities.
Goldman Sachs has argued that copper could remain within a US$10,000–11,000/t range through 2026 and 2027. Its analysis points to surplus conditions and the possibility that higher prices stimulate both supply and scrap.
The World Bank’s more conservative forecast near US$9,800/t represents the lower end of the published outlook. Such a result would likely require several factors to occur together:
- Slower-than-expected global manufacturing growth.
- Delayed or reduced data-centre investment.
- Weak Chinese construction and property demand.
- Successful mine expansions and fewer major disruptions.
- Higher scrap availability at elevated prices.
- A stronger US dollar or tighter financial conditions.
Even under this bear case, copper would remain above many historical averages. The structural argument for a higher long-term price floor is stronger than it was before the current wave of grid and digital infrastructure investment. The question is whether that floor sits near US$10,000/t or closer to US$12,000/t.
The supply question is more important than the demand narrative
Most analysts agree that electrification and AI will increase copper demand. The disagreement is over when that demand becomes large enough to overwhelm available supply.
Copper supply is exposed to risks at several stages:
- Mining: declining grades, equipment failures, weather and labour disputes.
- Concentrate: limited new mine capacity and disruptions at major operations.
- Smelting: capacity growth in China and pressure on treatment and refining charges.
- Refining: energy costs, sulphuric acid availability and regional bottlenecks.
- Logistics: shipping interruptions, sanctions and changes in trade policy.
The market balance can therefore tighten even when headline mine production rises. If smelters cannot secure sufficient concentrate, or if refined production is delayed by processing constraints, the price response may come before annual supply data show a deficit.
The International Copper Study Group and major bank research desks will be important sources for monitoring this balance through the year. Market participants should track mine guidance, treatment charges, exchange inventories, Chinese imports and scrap flows rather than relying on a single price target.
Solvent-extraction and electrowinning equipment used in copper processing.
What operators and investors should monitor
For mining operators, the forecast range changes the value of reliability. At US$10,800/t, incremental improvements in recovery, throughput and availability can materially improve margins. At US$13,500/t, the incentive to accelerate brownfield expansions and restart idled capacity becomes much stronger.
For developers, the risk is that high prices encourage faster project advancement but also increase costs for labour, equipment and construction. A robust feasibility study should test a broad price range rather than assume that the most bullish forecast becomes the market norm.
For industrial consumers, procurement and inventory strategies will remain central. A market that appears adequately supplied on an annual basis can still produce sharp regional shortages if inventories are concentrated in the wrong locations.
Bottom line
The current copper price forecast 2026 range runs from approximately US$9,800/t to US$13,500/t, with the centre of gravity around US$11,000–12,000/t.
The base case is a tight but manageable market, with prices consolidating around US$10,800–12,500/t. The bull case reaches Westpac’s US$13,500/t end-year target if disruptions, low inventories and infrastructure demand reinforce one another. The bear case returns copper toward US$9,800–11,000/t if supply recovers faster than demand and macroeconomic conditions weaken.
The decisive variable is not whether the energy transition requires copper. It is whether new mines, expansions, scrap and processing capacity can arrive quickly enough to meet that requirement. Until the supply response becomes more visible, copper is likely to retain a higher and more volatile price floor than its historical cycle would suggest.
Social snippet:
Copper’s 2026 outlook now spans roughly US$9,800–13,500/t. Westpac sees US$13,500/t by year-end, while Goldman Sachs expects consolidation near US$10,800–11,000/t. The dividing line is whether electrification and AI demand outpace new mine supply, scrap and refined production.