Copper processing infrastructure and concentrate stockpiles in the DRC.
By Charles Pitts
Copper has moved above $14,000 per tonne on the COMEX, with tariff-related stockpiling in the United States adding to a market already strained by mine disruptions and a tightening concentrate balance.
The latest catalyst is the Democratic Republic of Congo’s decision to ban exports of copper and cobalt concentrates. At the same time, Codelco has suspended development work at the Andes Norte section of its El Teniente mine for two years, removing an important source of expected future supply from the global pipeline.
The result is a market where the copper price forecast 2026 increasingly depends on the interaction between physical availability, trade policy and the speed at which consumers can draw down inventories. Citi’s base case remains close to $12,000 per tonne, but its bull-case pathway reaches $15,000 if disruptions persist and exchange stocks tighten further.
Copper’s record move is not being driven by one factor
Copper’s recent rally combines three separate market forces.
First, buyers in the United States have been bringing forward purchases in response to uncertainty over potential tariffs on refined copper. That has pulled metal toward U.S. warehouses and helped create a significant COMEX premium over the London Metal Exchange benchmark.
Second, the concentrate market was already under pressure. Treatment and refining charges have fallen sharply as smelters compete for limited feedstock. Low or negative treatment charges are a sign that miners and traders hold greater bargaining power over smelters, even when visible refined inventories appear relatively comfortable.
Third, new supply has become less responsive. Major mines in Chile, Peru and the DRC face declining grades, operational disruptions, technical constraints and long project-development timelines. Higher prices can improve margins, but they cannot quickly create new large-scale production.
This distinction matters. A price rally based mainly on tariff stockpiling could reverse if U.S. policy becomes clearer or inventories are released. A rally reinforced by a genuine concentrate shortage would be more persistent.
Underground mining equipment working in a copper-bearing rock formation.
DRC concentrate ban tightens the smelter market
The DRC is one of the world’s most important sources of mined copper and cobalt. Its concentrate-export ban is intended to encourage more local processing, but the immediate effect is to restrict the pool of material available to international smelters.
Reuters reported that the order covers copper and cobalt concentrates and could significantly reduce export flows. The policy does not necessarily remove all DRC copper from the global market. Local processing capacity, including the Kamoa-Kakula smelter ramp-up, could absorb some material. However, the timing creates a difficult adjustment for smelters that rely on imported concentrate.
That creates two separate risks for the market:
- Concentrate scarcity: Smelters may have to compete more aggressively for feedstock from Chile, Peru, Australia and other producing regions.
- Refined-market uncertainty: If smelters reduce operating rates because concentrate is unavailable, refined copper output could fall even while mine production remains stable.
The DRC measure also adds a geopolitical premium to copper. Governments are increasingly treating copper as a strategic input for power grids, defense systems, electric vehicles and data centers. Export restrictions are therefore becoming part of the market’s structural risk rather than an isolated policy event.
The impact could be partly softened if local DRC smelting capacity expands quickly or if exemptions allow some concentrate shipments to continue. But until the scope and duration of the ban become clearer, the policy supports the upside case for prices.
El Teniente delay removes another supply buffer
Codelco’s suspension of development at the Andes Norte section of El Teniente has added a second supply concern.
El Teniente is the world’s largest underground copper mine and one of the most important long-life assets in the global market. The Andes Norte development was intended to support production as older areas of the operation mature. Codelco has paused the work after technical and geological assessments identified additional risks at depth.
Mining Weekly reported that the suspension is expected to last two years while further studies are completed. The decision follows operational challenges and a fatal rockburst in an area of the mine in 2025.
The immediate production impact is not equivalent to closing the entire mine. The more important issue is the loss of expected future capacity. Development delays at mature operations can extend the period during which declining grades and aging infrastructure affect output.
For the broader copper market, El Teniente illustrates why supply forecasts have become less reliable. Many production models assume that brownfield expansions will arrive on schedule and offset declines elsewhere. When a major expansion is delayed, the market loses not only the planned tonnes but also part of its flexibility during future disruptions.
COMEX premium shows how trade policy is reshaping inventories
The premium of COMEX copper over LME copper has become one of the clearest signals in the current market.
Copper is globally traded, but regional premiums can rise when buyers expect a tariff, supply interruption or logistical bottleneck. U.S. consumers and traders have an incentive to bring metal into the country before any tariff takes effect. That creates a temporary demand surge and pulls units away from other markets.
The effect can be self-reinforcing:
- Tariff uncertainty increases U.S. buying.
- U.S. warehouse stocks rise and COMEX prices strengthen.
- Traders redirect copper cargoes toward the United States.
- Availability tightens elsewhere, supporting LME and physical premiums.
- Producers and fabricators revise procurement plans, increasing volatility.
This mechanism explains why exchange prices can rise before industrial consumption accelerates. The initial move reflects the location and timing of inventories rather than a sudden increase in global end-use demand.
It also creates a downside risk. If tariff policy is delayed, reduced or abandoned, some of the metal accumulated in the United States could return to the wider market. That would not resolve the DRC and El Teniente supply issues, but it could reduce the premium and trigger a sharp correction in futures prices.
Copper cathodes alongside commodity-market screens.
Copper price forecast 2026: base, bull and bear cases
The table below frames the main scenarios for the 2026 copper market. The ranges are not investment recommendations; they are a way to connect price outcomes with operating and policy conditions.
| Scenario | Indicative 2026 price range | Market conditions | Main risks to the scenario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | $11,500–$12,500/t | DRC restrictions remain in place but local smelting offsets part of the lost concentrate exports; El Teniente’s delay limits future growth; grid and data-center demand remain firm | U.S. tariff uncertainty fades, inventories rise and macroeconomic growth weakens |
| Bull case | $14,000–$15,000/t | DRC concentrate flows remain severely restricted, El Teniente’s delay extends or affects output, treatment charges stay distressed and exchange stocks decline | Demand destruction, faster scrap recovery or a rapid release of U.S.-held inventories |
| Bear case | $9,500–$11,000/t | Tariff stockpiling unwinds, global manufacturing slows and Chinese demand disappoints; recycling and alternative concentrate supply improve | Mine disruptions deepen and physical premiums remain elevated |
Citi’s $12,000-per-tonne base case is consistent with a market that remains structurally tight without entering a full supply panic. Its $15,000 bull case becomes more credible if several disruptions occur simultaneously rather than sequentially.
The bull case does not require every source of demand to surge. It requires the market to lose enough flexible supply that consumers begin competing for immediately deliverable units. That could happen through a combination of DRC export restrictions, delayed Chilean production, low smelter feed availability and continued U.S. inventory accumulation.
The bear case is also credible because copper remains economically sensitive. Higher interest rates, weaker construction activity or slower Chinese industrial growth could reduce demand quickly. Copper prices can fall even in a structurally undersupplied market if manufacturers run down inventories before restarting purchases.
What operators and investors should monitor
The most useful indicators for assessing the 2026 outlook are physical rather than headline prices alone.
Treatment and refining charges will show whether smelters are gaining or losing leverage over miners. Continued weakness would confirm that concentrate remains scarce.
COMEX–LME spreads and warehouse flows will indicate whether tariff-related stockpiling is intensifying or reversing. A narrowing spread would suggest that the U.S. inventory pull is losing momentum.
Codelco’s technical timetable will determine whether the El Teniente delay is contained or becomes a wider production problem. The market will be watching development milestones, safety reviews and revised output guidance.
DRC export exemptions and local smelter performance will determine how much concentrate is actually removed from international trade. The policy headline is significant, but the physical shipment data will be more important.
Scrap availability remains the principal near-term source of flexibility. Higher prices can draw more secondary copper into the market, although scrap collection and processing cannot fully replace lost mine supply.
The central message for decision-makers is that copper’s price ceiling is being tested by supply rigidity, while its downside remains controlled by macroeconomic demand and the possibility of inventory normalization.
Outlook
The copper market has entered 2026 with a higher structural floor than in previous cycles, but the path above $14,000 will depend on whether current disruptions translate into a sustained shortage of deliverable metal.
The DRC ban tightens the concentrate market. The El Teniente suspension reduces expected mine growth. Tariff hoarding has widened regional price differences and accelerated the movement of inventory into the United States.
Together, those factors support a base case near $12,000 per tonne and make Citi’s $15,000 bull case plausible. But a durable move into that range would require more than speculative positioning. It would require visible evidence that smelters, fabricators and industrial consumers cannot secure enough copper without bidding aggressively for prompt supply.
For now, the market is pricing a narrow margin for error. That makes supply data, trade-policy developments and project execution more important than any single forecast.
Social snippet
Copper has moved above $14,000/t as tariff-driven U.S. stockpiling collides with a tightening concentrate market. The DRC export ban and Codelco’s two-year El Teniente delay strengthen the bull case toward $15,000, while Citi’s base case remains near $12,000. Read the full 2026 scenario analysis.
Sources
- Reuters: Congo bans exports of copper and cobalt concentrates
- Mining Weekly analysis: Codelco suspends El Teniente expansion
- CNBC: Citi turns bullish on copper with a $15,000-per-tonne forecast
- Skillings: Copper price forecast 2026 and structural price floors
- Skillings: Copper supply deficit, grid upgrades and AI data centers
