An iron ore lake freighter loads at a Great Lakes industrial terminal.
By Mo Shine
Iron ore shipments on the Great Lakes rose slightly in July from a year earlier, but remained below the historical norm for the month as lower volumes at Superior, Wisconsin, and no shipments from Ashtabula, Ohio, offset strong tonnage at Marquette, Michigan, and Cleveland, Ohio.
Shipments totaled 5,117,615 tons in July, according to the Lake Carriers’ Association’s July 2026 release. That was up by less than 1% from July 2025 but 7.2% below the five-year average for the month.
The year-to-date picture is firmer. Great Lakes iron ore shipments reached 22,462,639 tons through July, or approximately 22.5 million tons. That was 3.3% higher than the same period a year earlier, while remaining 5.2% below the five-year average.
The figures provide a mixed read-through for U.S. steelmakers and upstream suppliers. They point to continued movement of ore into the Great Lakes steelmaking system, but not to a broad-based acceleration in regional demand.
Marquette and Cleveland outperform, Superior remains weak
The July port data show a clear split across the region.
Marquette recorded 943,152 tons, well above its five-year average of 741,293 tons. Cleveland shipments reached 457,073 tons, compared with a five-year average of 341,385 tons. Combined, the two ports handled 1.40 million tons, roughly 29% above their combined historical average for July.
Those gains helped lift the regional total above last year’s level despite weaker performance elsewhere.
Two Harbors, Minnesota, was comparatively close to its historical norm, handling 1,626,606 tons against a five-year average of 1,654,298 tons. Its shortfall was less than 2%, making it one of the more stable points in the monthly data.
The largest negative variance came from Superior. The Wisconsin port handled 833,339 tons, compared with a five-year July average of 1,332,269 tons. That represents a shortfall of approximately 499,000 tons, or 37%.
Ashtabula reported zero shipments in July. The port’s five-year average was not provided in the release’s port table, but the absence of any recorded volume was a notable drag on the regional total.
Industrial ore-handling infrastructure serves Great Lakes bulk carriers.
Great Lakes iron ore port data
| Port | July 2026 shipments (tons) | July five-year average (tons) | Variance vs. average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duluth, Minnesota | 885,915 | 1,017,432 | -12.9% |
| Superior, Wisconsin | 833,339 | 1,332,269 | -37.5% |
| Two Harbors, Minnesota | 1,626,606 | 1,654,298 | -1.7% |
| Silver Bay, Minnesota | 371,530 | 428,649 | -13.3% |
| Marquette, Michigan | 943,152 | 741,293 | +27.2% |
| Cleveland, Ohio | 457,073 | 341,385 | +33.9% |
| Ashtabula, Ohio | 0 | Not provided | : |
| Total | 5,117,615 | 5,515,326 | -7.2% |
The port distribution matters because Great Lakes ore shipments are closely connected to mine production, pellet availability, vessel scheduling, rail movements and steel mill operating rates. A strong result at one port cannot necessarily compensate for a sustained decline at another if the difference reflects changes in plant demand or logistics capacity.
July result adds to a steady, not booming, market
The July result arrives as the U.S. steel market enters the second half of 2026 with modest demand growth expectations and uneven performance across consuming sectors.
The World Steel Association’s 2026 short-range outlook projects U.S. steel demand to increase by about 1.7% this year. The OECD’s Steel Outlook is more conservative, forecasting growth of approximately 0.6%.
The difference between the forecasts reflects the uncertainty surrounding construction, automotive production, manufacturing activity and trade policy. Infrastructure, energy projects and data-center construction are providing support, while housing and some automotive demand remain more sensitive to financing costs and broader economic conditions.
For the Great Lakes, the relationship between steel output and iron ore is particularly important. Integrated steelmaking operations continue to rely on iron ore pellets and other ore-based inputs, even as electric-arc furnaces increase their share of U.S. production and consume more ferrous scrap.
That creates a market in which domestic steel production can remain relatively stable without producing a sharp increase in Great Lakes ore movements. July’s regional shipment data are consistent with that pattern: year-to-date volumes are above 2025, but still below the five-year benchmark.
2026 market snapshot
| Indicator | 2026 signal | Implication for Great Lakes iron ore |
|---|---|---|
| July Great Lakes shipments | 5.12 million tons | Slightly higher year over year, but below normal seasonal levels |
| Shipments through July | 22.46 million tons | Up 3.3% from 2025, still 5.2% below five-year average |
| U.S. steel demand outlook | Approximately +0.6% to +1.7% | Supports stable-to-slightly higher ore consumption |
| Import environment | Tighter access to imported steel | Can support domestic mill utilization |
| Global iron ore supply | New high-grade projects ramping | May limit pricing upside despite steady U.S. demand |
The U.S. market is also operating against a global iron ore backdrop in which new supply is becoming increasingly important. Skillings’ coverage of Simandou iron ore and its 2026 outlook tracks the ramp-up of a high-grade project in Guinea that is expected to add to seaborne supply as its mine, rail and port system develops.
That supply is not a direct substitute for every U.S. Great Lakes cargo. The regional trade is tied to domestic mines, pellet plants, lake transport and integrated steel mills. But additional high-grade seaborne supply can influence global benchmark prices, grade premiums and the competitive position of steelmakers that blend different ore products.
Port performance will remain a key watchpoint
For operators and market participants, the next reports will help determine whether July’s shortfall was primarily a timing issue or part of a broader change in regional flows.
Superior is the most immediate watchpoint because its July volume was substantially below its five-year average. A recovery there would materially improve the regional comparison, given the size of the port’s normal contribution.
Duluth and Silver Bay also trailed their respective five-year averages, although their gaps were less severe. Two Harbors was broadly in line with historical performance, while Marquette and Cleveland provided the strongest positive offsets.
Ashtabula’s zero shipment figure also warrants attention in future monthly data. A single month without cargo may reflect vessel scheduling, inventory management, maintenance or mill-specific requirements. It becomes more significant if it persists across subsequent reports.
The year-to-date total suggests that the system is moving more ore than it did in 2025, but the gap to the five-year average indicates that the recovery remains incomplete. That distinction is important for pellet producers, vessel operators, railroads and steelmakers planning procurement for the remainder of the navigation season.
Lake Carriers’ Association provides regional benchmark
The data are published by the Lake Carriers’ Association, which has represented the U.S.-flag Great Lakes fleet since 1880. The association says its member fleet can move more than 90 million tons of cargo annually, including iron ore, stone, coal, cement, grain, salt and sand.
Because the Great Lakes fleet serves multiple industrial supply chains, its cargo reports offer an operating view of the region’s underlying production economy. Iron ore shipments are one part of that system, but they are also a direct indicator of activity at mines, pellet facilities, ports and integrated steelmaking operations.
July’s report therefore points to a market that is improving from last year but remains below its recent seasonal standard. For the Great Lakes steel industry, the near-term signal is steady demand with regional divergence: not a surge in ore consumption.
For broader iron ore market analysis, readers can follow Skillings’ Iron Ore coverage, including updates on global supply, producer output, logistics and steelmaker demand.