When investors discuss the energy transition, copper, lithium, and nickel dominate the conversation. Yet a quieter contest is emerging for a lesser-known cohort of “hidden” minerals — gallium, germanium, scandium, indium, tellurium, and select rare earths such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. Though minor in tonnage, these minerals are vital to semiconductors, EV magnets, advanced alloys, and solar cells — and control over them could define industrial power in the next decade.
Critical minerals take center stage
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand for clean-energy metals surged again in 2023 — lithium by 30%, and nickel, cobalt, and graphite by up to 10%. While copper demand is expected to rise by 50% by 2040, the IEA projects that rare earths and other specialty minerals could more than double under net-zero scenarios. Yet behind these figures lies a more delicate reality: global supply chains for many of these critical elements remain dangerously concentrated in China.
Permanent-magnet rare earths — NdFeB magnets essential for EVs and wind turbines — are facing chronic tightness. Adamas Intelligence forecasts sustained high single-digit annual growth for NdFeB demand through 2040, pressuring neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium supplies. China currently refines over 85% of global rare earths and dominates magnet manufacturing, creating a strategic chokepoint for downstream industries.
Gallium and germanium: the semiconductor bottleneck
Gallium nitride (GaN) and gallium arsenide (GaAs) devices form the backbone of high-frequency electronics and radar systems, while germanium is used in fiber optics and infrared imaging. China’s 2023 export restrictions on both materials — citing national security reasons — sent shockwaves through semiconductor supply chains.
The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) and Reuters report that the U.S. and EU are now co-financing domestic refining projects and stockpiling gallium and germanium. However, production remains tied to by-products of bauxite, zinc, and coal — meaning scaling output depends on broader host-metal economics rather than dedicated mining.
Scandium: light metal, heavy opportunity
Scandium may sound exotic, but its potential is industrially profound. Adding trace amounts of scandium to aluminum yields lightweight, corrosion-resistant alloys ideal for EV frames, aerospace parts, and defense applications.
Rio Tinto’s scandium oxide facility in Sorel-Tracy, Quebec — extracting scandium from titanium dioxide waste streams — became North America’s first commercial scandium source. The model exemplifies how waste valorization, rather than new mining, can strengthen supply security while meeting ESG goals. Yet scalability remains challenging due to low global reserves and inconsistent offtake pricing.
Indium and tellurium: powering touchscreens and solar
Indium is indispensable for producing indium tin oxide (ITO), the transparent conductor that enables touchscreens and LCDs. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) notes that Japan and South Korea lead the world in ITO scrap recycling, a model the U.S. is now seeking to replicate. Despite substitution efforts with graphene and silver nanowires, ITO remains the standard due to its stability and performance.
Tellurium, meanwhile, has become a cornerstone of cadmium-telluride (CdTe) solar panels. More than 90% of global tellurium is recovered as a by-product from copper refining. First Solar’s rapid capacity expansion in Ohio and Malaysia highlights the element’s strategic value — yet also its vulnerability. DOE analysts warn that copper smelter utilization rates directly constrain tellurium output, underscoring the urgency for refining innovation and CdTe recycling programs.
Policy shifts redefine the global race
The European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), effective 2024, sets ambitious 2030 goals: extract 10%, process 40%, and recycle 25% of strategic raw materials domestically. The law also caps reliance on any single supplier at 65% — a clear signal to diversify away from China.
In response, Beijing has doubled down on export controls and licensing scrutiny for rare earths, gallium, and germanium. Western allies, led by the U.S., EU, Japan, and Australia, are countering with subsidies, strategic stockpiles, and “friend-shoring” partnerships to build resilient supply networks.
Where miners and investors should focus
- By-product recovery: Integrating hydrometallurgical circuits into copper, zinc, and titanium-dioxide plants to extract tellurium, indium, gallium, germanium, and scandium offers near-term upside. Rio Tinto’s scandium project demonstrates bankable potential.
- Downstream alliances: Stable offtake partnerships with alloy, magnet, and semiconductor manufacturers de-risk specialty metal projects.
- Recycling as new supply: ITO, NdFeB magnets, and CdTe modules can provide secondary feedstock, aligning profitability with ESG imperatives.
- Jurisdictional advantage: Projects aligned with CRMA, IRA, or Canada’s Critical Minerals Strategy enjoy preferential financing, permitting, and OEM interest.
Risks and realities
These markets are not without pitfalls. By-product dependency ties production to volatile host-metal cycles. If copper or zinc prices slump, recovery rates could fall even as specialty metal prices rise.
Technological substitution remains a long-term risk — silicon carbide (SiC) for GaN, magnet-free EV drive motors, or alternative transparent conductors. Yet in most cases, performance advantages still favor incumbent materials.
What success looks like by 2030
The most successful projects will marry metallurgical innovation with policy alignment. Expect to see new refining hubs in North America and the EU, capable of producing traceable gallium, germanium, and scandium at scale. Circular supply chains — from magnet recycling to solar module recovery — will mature into meaningful tonnage streams.
Ultimately, control over these “hidden” minerals will shape industrial sovereignty and clean-tech competitiveness — much like oil once did in the 20th century.
Skillings Analysis
- Winners will integrate, not just extract. Future profitability lies in mastering recovery systems and downstream conversion, not just raw ore supply.
- Policy arbitrage is the new moat. Firms positioned inside incentive zones — or those qualifying under CRMA and IRA rules — will capture premium offtake contracts.
- Transparency builds trust. Data-backed reporting on by-product recovery and ESG metrics will separate credible producers from speculative explorers.
