The next leader of the United Nations will take office as critical minerals reshape global trade, industrial policy and energy security. For the mining industry, the key question is what the new Secretary-General will do with the UN’s existing UN Secretary-General critical minerals agenda. Governments are competing for secure mineral supplies, and resource-producing countries want greater economic returns from extraction.
António Guterres’s second term ends on 31 December 2026. The General Assembly will appoint his successor after the Security Council makes a recommendation. The selection process remains politically sensitive, because the Council’s five permanent members hold veto power.
The leadership change could influence international talks on mineral supply chains, resource governance and economic development. It will not, by itself, change mining laws or set commodity prices. Governments, regulators and businesses make those decisions.
Critical Minerals Move Up the Global Agenda
Lithium, copper, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements are essential to electric vehicles, batteries, renewable energy systems and digital infrastructure. Their growing importance has made access to these materials a strategic concern for governments and manufacturers.
Securing supply is only part of the challenge. Countries that produce critical minerals also want a bigger share of the value that extraction generates.
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The UN has placed this issue inside its wider development agenda. Its work on critical energy transition minerals examines how countries can build transparent, equitable and sustainable mineral value chains. The programme also covers the environmental and social risks of expanding extraction. Guterres launched the Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals in April 2024 to support a fair transition for countries and communities that hold these minerals, according to UN News.
For resource-producing countries, the opportunity extends beyond mining. Domestic refining, processing and manufacturing can create jobs and support industrial development. These activities still require investment, infrastructure, technical skills and access to markets.
That creates a challenge for governments and mining companies alike. Producers want predictable investment conditions, while host countries want more economic value from their resources. The next Secretary-General will inherit this debate.
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The Candidates and the Critical Minerals Question
As of 28 September 2026, the UN’s official selection page lists seven active candidates. Chile withdrew Michelle Bachelet’s nomination in March, and Brazil and Mexico withdrew their support on 21 September. Virginia Gamba’s nomination was withdrawn in March.
The seven active candidates are Ivonne A-Baki, María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés, Rafael Mariano Grossi, Rebeca Grynspan Mayufis, Olara Otunnu, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett and Macky Sall. The UN publishes their nomination records, vision statements and professional backgrounds. For a wider overview of the race, see the Council on Foreign Relations guide to the selection.
Assess each candidate’s relevance to mining through stated positions and documented records. Nationality or professional experience alone cannot show what a candidate would do on critical minerals policy.
Rebeca Grynspan: Connecting Minerals With Economic Development
Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica has a direct institutional link to the critical minerals debate through her leadership of UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). UNCTAD’s work on critical minerals value addition looks at how developing economies can move beyond raw-material exports. It covers industrial policy, domestic processing and economic diversification. Grynspan has set out her own view in a UN Chronicle article on shared prosperity.
These issues matter to countries that want to keep more value from their mineral resources. They also matter to mining companies weighing investments in refining, processing and local partnerships.
Her experience makes these questions relevant to her candidacy. But UNCTAD’s institutional work is not automatically her personal policy programme. Judge her approach as Secretary-General by her own commitments and later actions.
The Other Candidates: What Their Records Establish
The remaining candidates bring different diplomatic, political and institutional backgrounds. Their published vision statements show their priorities.
Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett of Guyana has experience in diplomacy and government. Her candidacy raises questions about development and international cooperation. Guyana’s resource economy provides context, but it does not establish her personal position on mining policy.
María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés of Ecuador has held senior diplomatic roles, including the presidency of the UN General Assembly. Her views on development, environmental protection and multilateral cooperation are relevant to mining. Specific commitments on critical minerals need direct evidence from her statements.
Rafael Mariano Grossi leads the International Atomic Energy Agency. His experience makes nuclear energy and uranium issues relevant to his background. It does not, by itself, establish his position on uranium mining or the wider critical minerals industry.
The same standard applies to Ivonne A-Baki, Olara Otunnu and Macky Sall. Assess their mining positions through documented commitments, not assumptions based on nationality or past roles.
The available evidence supports examining each candidate’s experience and stated priorities. It does not justify attributing a detailed mining policy to candidates who have not outlined one.
Four Issues the Next UN Chief Will Inherit on Critical Minerals
1. Who Benefits From Mineral Wealth?
Mining can generate export earnings, employment and government revenue. Yet the economic benefits do not always extend far beyond extraction.
Many resource-producing countries want to develop domestic processing and manufacturing. Their goal is to capture more value before minerals reach international markets. UNCTAD’s work on mineral value addition in developing countries addresses this challenge through economic diversification and industrial development.
For mining companies, these ambitions can shape investment decisions. Governments may seek local processing, infrastructure commitments or partnerships with domestic businesses. Such policies can create opportunities, but they also affect project costs and commercial planning. Processing facilities need reliable power, transport, water, skilled workers and sufficient production volumes.
The next Secretary-General could give these issues greater prominence in the UN’s development work. National governments will still set their own mineral policies and investment conditions.
2. Supply-Chain Security and Geopolitical Competition
Critical mineral supply chains become vulnerable when a few countries dominate production or processing. Export restrictions, trade disputes and political instability can hurt manufacturers far beyond the producing region.
The UN gives countries a forum to discuss these risks and pursue cooperation. The Secretary-General can convene governments and raise issues that need international attention. But diplomacy cannot guarantee uninterrupted supplies. Governments will keep deciding based on their own economic and security interests.
For mining investors, the important signals will come from concrete changes in trade policy, investment rules and international cooperation. A change in UN leadership alone does not establish that any of these will happen.
3. Responsible Mining and Community Benefits
Expanding mineral production brings environmental and social questions into sharper focus. Mining projects can create jobs and public revenue. Poorly managed operations can also damage water resources, disrupt communities and leave costly rehabilitation obligations.
The UN’s critical minerals agenda calls for sustainable value chains and closer attention to the interests of producing countries and communities. Its July 2026 Security Council debate also highlighted the links between natural-resource governance, conflict and prosperity.
For companies, these issues affect project planning, community engagement and investor expectations. They can also influence the conditions attached to financing and market access. The Secretary-General can help keep international attention on these concerns. Actual operating requirements will still depend on national laws, permits, contracts and international commitments.
Our related coverage looks at why governance funding is shrinking as project finance grows.
4. Transparency and Illicit Mineral Trade
The origin of minerals matters more and more to buyers, manufacturers and investors. Companies may need to show that materials come from legitimate sources and meet due-diligence requirements. This challenge is greatest where illegal extraction, smuggling and conflict overlap.
At its July 2026 Security Council debate, the UN stressed the need for stronger governance, transparency and local benefit-sharing. Member states also discussed international cooperation on natural-resource governance.
The debate did not produce a formal resolution, declaration or binding plan of action. It did show broad political support for continued attention to these issues. For mining companies, the next step to watch is implementation. New programmes, national rules or commercial sourcing standards could change how businesses document mineral origins and manage suppliers.
What Can the UN Secretary-General Actually Change?
The Secretary-General leads the UN Secretariat, represents the organisation diplomatically and helps shape its priorities. The office can bring governments together, raise emerging issues and encourage cooperation across the UN system.
But the Secretary-General does not issue mining licences, set royalties or determine commodity prices. The office also cannot impose a binding mining code on every country.
The appointment process reflects the balance of power inside the UN. Under Article 97 of the UN Charter, the Security Council recommends a candidate and the General Assembly appoints that person. The permanent members’ veto powers are central to the process.
For the mining industry, this distinction matters. A stronger UN focus on responsible sourcing or local value addition may influence policy debates. It does not automatically create new legal obligations for companies. The practical effects will depend on member states, national regulators and businesses.
What Mining Investors Should Watch Next
The incoming Secretary-General’s first statements will give an early signal of priorities. More meaningful evidence will come through appointments, work programmes and decisions by member states. Four developments deserve particular attention:
- Critical minerals policy: Whether the UN keeps supporting economic diversification and greater value addition in producing countries.
- Supply-chain cooperation: Whether international initiatives lead to practical measures on transparency and supply security.
- Resource governance: Whether the UN expands its work on responsible extraction, illicit mineral trade and community benefits.
- Implementation: Whether existing principles lead to funded programmes, new agreements or changes in national policy.
These developments will show the transition’s implications more clearly than the appointment itself. Investors should separate broad diplomatic signals from changes that affect project costs, market access or regulatory obligations. Those effects will become clear only as governments and institutions act.
A Leadership Transition, Not a Policy Reset
The next UN Secretary-General will inherit an established critical minerals agenda. Its priorities reflect rising demand, concentrated supply chains and the development ambitions of resource-producing countries.
Grynspan’s leadership of UN Trade and Development gives her a direct institutional link to debates over mineral value addition and economic diversification. Judge the other candidates’ positions by their own published commitments.
The leadership transition could change how prominently critical minerals feature in international diplomacy. It could also shape the UN’s approach to cooperation between producing and consuming countries. But the appointment will not determine the future of mining on its own. National policies, commercial decisions and the actions of UN member states will carry greater weight on the ground.
For the global mining industry, the central question is whether the UN can help turn mineral wealth into more resilient supply chains and broader economic benefits for producing countries and communities. That is the measure to watch as the next Secretary-General takes office.
