The scramble for Africa’s minerals is back: and this time, it’s not about gold or diamonds. It’s about the stuff that powers your phone, your EV, and the entire global energy transition. Zimbabwe is projecting mineral revenues to hit $7.5 billion in 2026, up from $5.9 billion just two years earlier. The Democratic Republic of Congo controls roughly 70% of the world’s cobalt supply. And everyone: Washington, Brussels, Beijing: is suddenly very interested in making friends on the continent.
Here’s the thing: Africa has always been resource-rich. What’s changed is that the resources the world desperately needs right now: lithium, cobalt, copper, platinum group metals: happen to sit in massive concentrations under African soil. The International Energy Agency estimates that if African countries can successfully develop their mineral sectors, the market value could jump by nearly three-quarters by 2040, climbing from today’s $120 billion baseline.
That’s not a projection you ignore.
Zimbabwe’s Lithium Play Takes Center Stage
Zimbabwe isn’t messing around. The country’s mining business confidence index has climbed to 8.4, reflecting genuine optimism that hasn’t been seen in years. Overall mineral output is forecast to grow by 6% in 2026, with capacity utilization expected to reach 95%: up from 88% in 2025. Some sub-sectors, like platinum group metals and coal, are already running at full tilt.
Gold production alone is expected to jump from 47,000 kg in 2025 to 50,000 kg in 2026. Employment across the mining sector should increase by 6.5%, with executives broadly optimistic about project profitability.
But the real story? Lithium. Zimbabwe sits on some of the largest hard-rock lithium deposits on the planet, and it’s finally moving to capture more value from them. A lithium sulfate processing plant is expected to enter operation, signaling a shift from simply exporting raw ore to actually processing it domestically. That’s the game-changer.
The government is also using mineral wealth as part of a deliberate foreign currency accumulation strategy. Central bank reserves: comprising gold, precious minerals, and foreign deposits: rose from $276 million in April to $1.1 billion by December. That’s strategic resource management with teeth.
DRC Cobalt: The Elephant in Every Battery Room
You cannot have a serious conversation about the Africa mining industry without talking about DRC cobalt. The Democratic Republic of Congo isn’t just a major player: it’s THE player. When roughly 70% of global cobalt production comes from one country, supply chain analysts lose sleep over it.
Cobalt is essential for lithium-ion batteries, which means it’s essential for electric vehicles, grid storage, and pretty much everything the clean energy transition depends on. The DRC’s Copperbelt region produces cobalt primarily as a byproduct of copper mining, which creates an interesting economic dynamic: copper prices often dictate how much cobalt actually gets pulled out of the ground.
The challenge? Artisanal and small-scale mining operations, which account for a significant chunk of DRC’s cobalt output, have faced persistent scrutiny over labor conditions and environmental practices. Major automakers and battery manufacturers are increasingly demanding traceable, responsibly-sourced supply chains: which creates both pressure and opportunity for formalization efforts.
Still, the sheer scale of DRC’s reserves means it will remain central to global supply chains for decades. The question isn’t whether the world needs DRC cobalt. It’s who gets to control it.
Critical Mineral Production Costs: Africa vs. Australia
Here’s where things get interesting for mining executives doing back-of-the-napkin math.
Australia has traditionally dominated the lithium spodumene market, with established operations in Western Australia running efficient, well-capitalized mines. But Australian labor costs are high, energy costs are climbing, and regulatory compliance adds layers of expense.
Africa offers a different equation. Labor costs in Zimbabwe and the DRC are significantly lower. Energy costs vary: Zimbabwe faces chronic power supply deficits that cause approximately 10% loss in potential output: but in regions with reliable grid access or on-site generation, operational expenses can undercut Australian competitors meaningfully.
The production cost advantage isn’t theoretical. Chinese mining companies figured this out years ago and have been quietly (and sometimes not so quietly) locking up African assets while Western companies hesitated over ESG concerns and permitting timelines.
That calculus is shifting. Western governments and mining firms are now racing to catch up, recognizing that critical mineral production costs in Africa make economic sense: if you can navigate the operating environment.
The Great Power Chess Match: US, EU, and China
Three blocs. One continent. A lot of lithium and cobalt.
China moved first and moved aggressively. Chinese state-backed companies and private firms have invested billions across African mining assets, particularly in the DRC’s copper-cobalt belt and Zimbabwe’s lithium sector. They’ve built processing facilities, signed offtake agreements, and cultivated government relationships that give them first-mover advantages in many jurisdictions.
The United States is playing catch-up. The Inflation Reduction Act created incentives for critical mineral sourcing from friendly nations, and the administration has launched various initiatives aimed at securing supply chains. But American mining investment in Africa remains modest compared to Chinese activity.
The European Union is somewhere in between: talking a big game about strategic autonomy and critical raw materials, while struggling to translate policy into actual investment on the ground. The EU Critical Raw Materials Act sets ambitious targets, but European mining companies have been slower to commit capital to African projects than their Chinese counterparts.
What African governments want is clear: downstream processing. They’re tired of exporting raw ore at commodity prices while someone else captures the value-add. Zimbabwe’s push into lithium sulfate production reflects this sentiment. The DRC has made similar noises about requiring more in-country processing before export.
For Western nations trying to compete with China for African critical minerals, the message is straightforward: bring investment that creates local jobs and builds local capacity, or watch those resources flow east.
The Headwinds Nobody Wants to Talk About
It’s not all upside. Anyone telling you African mining is a guaranteed win hasn’t read the risk disclosures.
Zimbabwe’s mining sector faces real constraints. Power supply deficits cause roughly 10% loss in potential output, and electricity demand is expected to rise from 750 megawatts to 880 megawatts in 2026. Foreign currency shortfalls create an estimated 4% loss in potential output. Mining executives remain pessimistic about the fiscal framework, citing concerns over potential new taxes and high operational costs.
The DRC has its own set of challenges: infrastructure gaps, governance concerns, security issues in eastern provinces, and the constant tension between formalized industrial operations and artisanal mining.
These aren’t problems that disappear with a press release. They require sustained investment in power generation, transportation infrastructure, regulatory clarity, and workforce development. The countries that crack these challenges will capture enormous value. The ones that don’t will watch their resources get extracted under unfavorable terms: again.
What Comes Next
The Africa mining industry is at an inflection point. Zimbabwe lithium production is scaling up. DRC cobalt remains indispensable. Critical mineral production costs favor African operations in ways that weren’t true a decade ago.
The competition between US, EU, and Chinese interests will intensify. African governments will push harder for downstream processing and local value capture. Mining companies will need to balance ESG expectations with operational realities in challenging jurisdictions.
For investors, executives, and policymakers watching this space, the fundamental trajectory is clear: Africa’s role in the global critical minerals supply chain is growing, and it’s not slowing down anytime soon.
The only question is who benefits: and who gets left behind.
For more coverage on global mining trends and critical mineral markets, visit Skillings Mining Review.
