DAKAR, Sept. 27, 2025 — The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), source of nearly three-quarters of the world’s cobalt, will lift its eight-month export ban on October 16 and replace it with strict export quotas. The move marks a dramatic pivot from outright prohibition to controlled supply management, with annual caps set at 96,600 tonnes in 2026 and 2027, well below the country’s 2024 mined output of roughly 220,000 tonnes. For the rest of 2025, only 18,125 tonnes will be cleared for export, according to Congo’s Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances’ Markets.
The system allocates quotas by historical exports, with 10% reserved for strategic national projects, while the regulator retains power to buy back excess stock and revise quarterly allowances. The framework has drawn divergent reactions: Glencore has quietly welcomed the shift as pragmatic, while CMOC Group has signaled opposition, warning of tighter bottlenecks.
Cobalt’s Role and Why This Matters
Cobalt is critical to nickel–cobalt–manganese (NCM) battery chemistries used in electric vehicles and energy storage. The DRC’s dominance — supplying between 70–76% of mined output in 2024 (USGS data) — makes its policy decisions global price setters.
By deliberately restricting export volumes, Kinshasa aims to reduce stock overhang that drove prices to a nine-year low of $10/lb earlier this year. Analysts now see potential for a structural deficit by 2026, accelerating a market shift that might otherwise have taken several years.
For mining companies and EV supply chains, this is not just a local regulatory change — it is a reshaping of the cobalt cost base worldwide.
Prices: From Collapse to Controlled Recovery
Cobalt prices rebounded to about $16/lb by mid-September, helped by the earlier suspension of exports that forced force majeure declarations from Glencore and CMOC. Moving from a blanket ban to export quotas reduces operational chaos while sustaining supply-side pressure.
Traders now expect lower volatility but firmer prices, particularly if Chinese inventories — widely believed to be thin — fail to cushion demand. With global battery demand up 30% in China and 20% in the U.S. last year (IEA), the margin for error is shrinking.
Winners and Losers in the New Quota Era
- DRC-based miners: For well-capitalized producers, quotas offer predictability and potential price uplift. The risk lies in regulator buybacks or downward revisions that could crimp quarterly revenues.
- Chinese refiners: China dominates cobalt refining but relies heavily on Congolese feed. With quotas halving potential shipments, refiners face higher input costs and possible margin compression unless they pass costs to cathode producers.
- EV and battery OEMs: While lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistries are growing, NCM still underpins much of the mid- to high-range EV segment. Automakers face renewed pressure to diversify supply chains, recycle more cobalt, and renegotiate offtakes.
ESG and Compliance: The ASM Wild Card
An estimated 15–30% of Congolese cobalt originates from artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM), often outside formal oversight. The government links unregulated mineral flows to M23 rebel activity in the east, raising reputational and sanctions risk for buyers.
Quotas may improve traceability by tightening oversight of exports, but ASM leakage and smuggling remain challenges for companies aligned with the Responsible Minerals Assurance Process (RMAP).
Macro Outlook: A Tight Market Ahead
The 96,600-tonne export cap for 2026–27 represents less than half of Congo’s mined output last year. Even accounting for Indonesian growth, global supply will tighten, with analysts forecasting a swing to deficit by 2026.
For miners, this strengthens the case for project sanctioning and restarts. For OEMs, it renews urgency around long-term contracts and regional refining initiatives, particularly in North America and Europe.
Policy Signaling: From Exporter to Price Manager
By carving out 10% of cobalt volumes for national projects and promoting local refining capacity, Congo is signaling a long-term ambition: to capture more downstream value and wield price influence similar to OPEC in oil. Unlike a ban, quotas allow Kinshasa to fine-tune supply and price without crippling its own mining revenues.
What to Watch Next
- Quota allocations to individual producers post-October.
- Quarterly revisions and regulator buybacks.
- China’s pass-through ability to cathode makers.
- Security developments in eastern Congo affecting logistics.
- Audit updates on ASM sites impacting responsible sourcing.
Skillings analysis
- A shift from bans to quotas is policy pragmatism: it stabilizes the market without paralyzing operations.
- If the 96,600-tonne cap holds, cobalt’s discount to historic averages could narrow sharply by 2026, especially with thin Chinese stocks.
- Traceability remains the fault line: unless ASM oversight improves, buyers will pay premiums for auditable supply, splitting the market into compliant and grey-zone cobalt.
Congo’s pivot to quotas is more than crisis management — it is a structural play to leverage resource dominance into price power. For miners, it offers a path back to healthier realizations. For refiners and OEMs, it is a warning: diversify inputs, deepen recycling, and lock in supply now — before 2026 tightness makes cobalt the next lithium.
